14 December 2008

But Are We Better?

Okay, enough whining about coverage. Let's cut to the chase and see what we're dealing with in the 2009 Yankees.

The fact that the Yankees did not make the playoffs in 2008, the first time in 13 years, was indeed significant. Significant enough to overhaul the entire rotation and put the youth movement on notice. Production exceeds potential. Produce or else.

And while everyone's losing their minds in regards to the how's and why's of the Sabathia and Burnett signings, the only analysis I'm going to give is whether or not they make our team better and just how much better (or worse) in relation to last year's squad.

Enter this article I ran across on Yahoo! sports. In it something called AccuScore has the Yankees winning 7-8 more games this season due to the acquisitions of Sabathia and Burnett. Leaving them with an AL East best record of 97-66. I'm mostly intrigued by this article due to the fact that it has Alfredo Aceves, not Andy Pettite or Derek Lowe, rounding out the rotation as the 5th starter.

AccuScore makes the claim that based on last year's small sample size, Aceves has the ability to be just as good as a final lap with Andy Pettite would and a mere 4 games worse than Derek Lowe. Normally, I hate projections and mathematical algorithms that try and predict a baseball season, but at least this article is asking the question "Who's our 5th starter?".

I think we'll be light year's ahead of what we were last year barring serious injury of course. The sportswriters paint the team as desperate today, but we were far more desperate last year using Rasner, Pavano, and Ponson in crucial games down the stretch and needing and expecting quality innings from Hughes, Kennedy, and Igawa in the early stages of the season. In fact, a whopping 68 starts were wasted on the likes of Giese, Rasner, Ponson, Pavano, et. al. Rasner started 20 last year. Ponson started 15 (So did Wang). Kennedy and Hughes had 17 starts between them. Brian Bruney started a game. One of the great things about the Sabathia and Burnett deals is they effectively try and prevent such travesties. We were indeed lucky to win as many as we did last year in retrospect.

The only drop-off comes in the area of offense. Some are pushing for Texiera and/or Manny to boost production. I think that's awfully short-sighted, unimaginative, and no guarantee of anything except another ridiculous payroll. But that's me. I've always believed that you don't need a lot of offense with elite pitching and solid defense. I remember 1998. Not a single guy on that list with 30 HRs, yet it was the best damn baseball I've ever seen.

That 1998 team won a league record of 125 games counting the postseason. There's no reason the 2009 version can't match or exceed that production. They probably won't and only because they won't address the key weakness facing this team going forward. Strength up the middle.

The key to the whole thing is Robinson Cano. Robbie can't hide in the lineup and hit 7th or 8th anymore. He needs to produce in the 3 or 5 hole and finally reach that lofty potential. Another slow start is unacceptable.

Getting more production from center field is also crucial. Improving Melky's line of .249, .301, .341 is also a necessity. Somebody needs to rethink this Cameron thing. A career .250, .340, .448 isn't enough of an upgrade to warrant the move. I'm pretty sure Gardner, Melky, or a platoon of the two exceeds both marks if you're able to foster a friendly rivalry between the two youngsters as they fight for playing time.

Catcher is a huge question mark. Will we get the '07 Jorge or just Jorge? And how well can he hold up anyway? To me, Posada's recovery and the deal he signed last year has been blocking any Texiera acquisition from the get-go. You cannot in good faith lock up 1B for multiple seasons and hundreds of millions if you're unsure about the health of your 37 year old catcher coming off of shoulder surgery with 3 years left on his deal. Why doesn't anyone still clamoring for Tex get that?

Which brings me to SS. Simple fact time: Jeter isn't an elite SS anymore. He's been on the bottom of the SS rankings for quite sometime, and while he may yo-yo between 27th and 20th place -- that's just not good enough. The whole Jeter thing really warrants its own article, so I'm not going to really get into it too deeply here. I'll just say this. Sooner than later we're going to have to upgrade that position from a defensive perspective at the very least.

I also look to the bench for help. Why are we still protecting Shelley Duncan? Can Cody Ransom produce like that for an entire year? Can Jose Molina repeat or even improve on last year's performance? Who can help round it out?

With the pitching seemingly wrapped up, these are the pertinent questions facing us now. Can we deliver that championship balance?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Excellent points. In addition Bill James now projects Phil Hughes with a .345 era in 2009.