Well, the deadline for arbitration came and went and the Yankees stayed put on the sidelines, silent and confidant in their decision to essentially do nothing. Either the Yankees are shrewdly dissecting and analyzing the market and the state of the game or they're vastly undervaluing the type A status of their premiere, big name players about to hit free agency. Time will ultimately judge this decision.
Screw time though. Who wants to wait anyway? Let's actually break this thing down and see if Cashman and Co. did the right thing. Patience be damned! Before we start though I suggest you head here if you're not familiar with the arbitration process for a refresher.
The Yankees had 4 type A players facing arbitration in Bobby Abreu, Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, Andy Pettite, and the newly retired Mike Mussina. (The only reason Mussina would be offered arbitration would be to prevent another Roger Clemens situation in which the good ol' Rocket announced his retirement in New York only to un-retire in Houston. The decision to not offer Roger arbitration in the '03-'04 offseason cost the Yankees a precious and delicious sandwich pick. The Yankees seem confidant in the fact that Moose isn't a piece of shit like Roger is though, so they really only had 3 type A guys.)
It's important to note that of the 3 remaining players, only one, Andy Pettite, had a team expressing any interest in him. Equally as important is the fact that Andy Pettite is the only player who actually fits into the Yankees future plans. And to be honest, when Dodger's GM Ned Colletti said there was "some" interest in Pettite, no one blinked in the Bronx. And rightly so. After all, Andy has gone on record numerous times expressing his desire to retire a Yankee and open the new Stadium. If the lure of LA can transplant the "family" man -- so be it. Besides, what GM would ever deny interest in any player when posed the question?
The tricky part is deciding whether or not the Dodgers have any interest in Andy Pettite, especially if it costs them upwards of 16 million dollars and a draft pick. I say there's no way. Cashman concurs. Therefore, it's practically impossible to take advantage of Andy's class A status. The 16 million dollars he made last year makes him untouchable to rival clubs.
Andy's greatest quality was always his big game ability, strength down the stretch, and second half numbers. Then the Mitchell report labeled him as an HGH user and then he admitted his guilt. His second half numbers in 2008 speak for themselves: 4-7 with a 5.35 ERA. His batting avg. against was .302 and he gave up a whopping 96 hits in a meager 79 innings down the stretch. It's important to note that historically Andy Pettite has posted a .713 winning percentage after the All Star Break as of 2007 and went 11-3 down the stretch for the Yankees in '07. Would you offer this guy arbitration based on this kind of drastic drop in production? Would you let this guy explore the market with at least a 16 million dollar safety net?
Me neither. That's 1 good decision for Cash and crew.
Bobby Abreu had expressed interest to both stay in New York and receive at least a 3 year 45 million dollar deal. The silence was and still is deafening. Nothing against Abreu. He's a fine player. In fact, the argument can be made that he was our most productive player last year. When we take our uncharacteristic power outage into account from 2008 it really almost looks like we can't afford to lose him at all.
Bobby Abreu really only produced for himself though. The season's over and all that production was for naught. All it does for us in December is ensure a pay raise from the 16 mill he made last year for 36 year old Bobby if we offer him arbitration. Outside of us, there's not a team in baseball that wants Bobby Abreu at 16 mill or can even pay him that much. That's how we got him, remember? The Phillies back loaded that deal and had to send him to the only team that could afford him.
We've already got built-in, cheaper, and younger replacements in Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher, if necessary. Neither will approach Abreu's individual numbers, but there's no room left at the Inn for Bobby. A third party arbiter would no doubt decree Bobby earned a raise based on what his bat did in '08 and not one single team in baseball would jump on Bobby at that price. This fact would create a domino effect across our outfield and the last dominoes to fall would be any sort of youth you could inject onto the team. The crap outfield of Nady LF, Damon CF, and Abreu RF I cursed and despised so vigorously last year would be ensured. So would my tragic suicide.
That's 2 for the brain trust from the Bronx. One left.
Pudge Rodriguez made something ridiculous like 15 million dollars last season. Jorge Posada, our starting catcher makes 13. Obviously, you can't run the risk of having a back-up catcher who makes more than your starter. Whether or not Pudge would be the kind of guy to do this is debateable, but what do you think the market for Pudge Rodriguez really is? It can't be 15 million. I'm thinking you cut that 15 million in half and you're approaching it.
What these guys actually fetch on the open market will really decide all this, but this is another good move for the Yankees if you ask me.
Essentially the stance that they're taking is one of complete disinterest in Abreu and Pudge -- a big thanks, but no thanks, if you will. If there is real interest in becoming younger and more athletic, this is truly the move you need to make. Pettite's case is bit different because the Yankees do want Pettite in pinstripes next year. They just want him on their terms.
It's clear to see what Steinbrenner son runs the show. It's not the blowhard. It's the one with the accounting degree. This all boils down to is 3 individual cases where the risk of offering arbitration far outweighs any reward that would accompany it. The shrewd and prudent maneuver wins out for once.
03 December 2008
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1 comment:
Very well done!! A welcome change from the formulaic thinking and writing of the sports press.
Baseball free agency meets the economy
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